In 1970, nearly half of all Black individuals in the U.S. resided in a large city. Over the past 50 years, that number has fallen to merely 25 percent, while the share living in the suburbs of large cities rose from 16 to 36 percent.
This demographic shift is as large as the post-World War II wave of the , according to economists Evan Mast of the University of Notre Dame and of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Mast and Bartik thought that for the size of this trend, there had been remarkably little recent research on it, especially in economics. “This seemed like an area that no one had really examined with an economics lens before,” Mast said of his and his co-author’s work.
“What we really wanted to know was whether suburbanization affected Black households’ neighborhood quality, schools, public services and intergenerational mobility,” they wrote.
Their in The Review of Economics and Statistics journal found that while Black population growth has been rapid and widespread across various types and locations of suburban neighborhoods, Black population has also drastically declined in city neighborhoods that were initially predominantly Black and lower income. For example, census data indicated that majority-Black neighborhoods with a poverty rate above 20 percent in 1970 have since lost 60 percent of their Black population and 40 percent of their total population.
“That really high concentration of Black families in those central cities has been unwinding since 1970 and we’re seeing people spread out to the suburbs — including to higher income suburban neighborhoods and more mixed race suburban neighborhoods,” said Mast, an urban economist who studies public finance, housing markets and place-based policies in Notre Dame’s .
The researchers examined the reasons behind this shift and found evidence that individuals and families have been drawn to the suburbs by improved amenities and better quality of life as well as falling housing prices and decreased housing discrimination. The study relied on a panel of census tract characteristics spanning 1970 to 2016 to show that changes in relative suburban amenities accounted for 60 percent of Black suburbanization, while housing prices explained 30 percent.
Less influential were the effects of suburban decline, gentrification of Black city neighborhoods and rising levels of income and education. Increased educational attainment and regional reallocation together accounted for only 10 percent of suburbanization.
“One outcome is that the suburbs look a little bit more diverse and are more representative of the country than they used to be,” Mast said.
But the study also indicated that suburbanization plays a role in creating disparities within the Black population itself in regard to household location and income. “We see a growing divergence in neighborhood quality of Black suburbanites and city dwellers — where conditions are improving in the suburbs while stagnating in the cities,” the co-authors explained.
Suburbanization has highlighted a divergence in income as well. The median income of the average Black individual living in the suburbs modestly improved from 61 to 66 percent of the average white individual’s income, while the figure for Black city dwellers has fallen from 58 to 50 percent.
The economists argued that both a lack of low-cost suburban housing and relatively low white flight have played important roles in generating this stratification between Black households in cities and suburbs.
Unlike the Great Migration, where Black families moved from the rural South to the urban North between 1910 and 1970 and ensuing white flight caused housing prices to fall and racial segregation to increase, this current demographic shift looks quite different.
“We show that white flight is significantly lower in our context,” the co-authors wrote. “This reduces downward pressure on housing prices, preventing suburban neighborhoods from becoming affordable for lower-income Black households and helping to sustain income segregation.”
Similarly, the authors found large differences in the cost of living in the cities and suburbs throughout their sample period — particularly at the lower end of the price spectrum — likely making it easier for Black households with more resources to move to the suburbs than it was for households with fewer resources.
“One outcome is that the suburbs look a little bit more diverse and are more representative of the country than they used to be.”
And it’s not just that initial generation growing up in the 1970s who is making these migration choices and moving out, according to the co-authors. The number of Black children living in cities has shrunk particularly rapidly, with their numbers falling by 30 percent since 2000.
“Now it tends to be the young people who are settling down in the suburbs, rather than in the city where they might have grown up,” said Mast. “So the trend is also about the next generation making different decisions about where to start.”
Sharp population decline can create policy concerns, the co-authors pointed out, as they can increase the chances for school closures, reduce retail or grocery options and jeopardize tax revenue.
The economists acknowledged that there is room for further research related to Black suburbanization. One question they feel could be explored is how suburbanization affects the economic and social outcomes of Black individuals.
Furthermore, they feel that there could be financial and political impacts from these shifts. For example, it would be helpful to understand whether changing racial composition in suburban jurisdictions and electoral districts has any impact on municipal finances and political representation.
This research is indicative of the type of work being conducted through the , a data-focused research effort fostering and advancing multidisciplinary work on a wide range of pressing demographic issues facing society. Mast is a faculty affiliate of ND Pop, which is facilitated by a partnership between the University’s and the .
Contact: Tracy DeStazio, associate director of media relations, 574-631-9958 or tdestazi@nd.edu